Eskom’s recently announced three-year wage agreement is being publicly presented as a “7% increase,” but industry investigations suggest the real long-term cost impact could exceed 9%–10% once allowances, benefits, pension-linked costs and compounding increases are included. The South African consumer loses again. Eskom continues to mislead the consumer.
This comes at a dangerous time for South Africa’s energy economy. Eskom remains heavily dependent on diesel generation during grid instability, while growing geopolitical tensions involving the USA, Israel and Middle Eastern oil supply routes continue placing upward pressure on global fuel prices. If diesel prices continue to rise sharply, Eskom’s operational costs will continue to surge dramatically.
At the same time, reports continue highlighting preferential electricity pricing agreements benefiting some of South Africa’s largest mining and industrial users, with ordinary households and businesses effectively subsidising discounted tariffs. Questions are also now emerging around Eskom’s reported R5.4 billion bonus-related liabilities despite ongoing financial pressure and infrastructure challenges.
The bigger risk is that many of these costs may not yet be fully reflected in current approved tariffs. That means the real financial impact could emerge during future NERSA tariff negotiations between 2028 and 2031, particularly if load shedding returns as some analysts are now warning.
Expected Eskom Tariff Outlook: 2028 – 2029 – 9% to 12%, 2029 – 2030: 10% to 13%, 2030 – 2031: 8% to 11%. These increases could be driven by: Rising labour costs, diesel expenditure, infrastructure maintenance, municipal debt, generation expansion, and weakening reserve margins. The impact on commercial, industrial and agricultural sectors could become severe. Businesses may face: Rising operating costs, shrinking margins, higher food and production costs, and increased pressure to reduce staff or delay expansion. For agriculture, rising electricity and diesel costs together could significantly increase irrigation, refrigeration and food production expenses, ultimately pushing inflation even higher for ordinary South Africans.
Recent energy sector analysis warns that load shedding could return within the next three years as Eskom faces rising diesel costs, infrastructure pressure and growing operational instability. Combined with projected tariff increases of up to 13%, businesses and consumers could face another severe energy and cost crisis.
The Real Risk to Businesses: South African businesses can no longer afford to wait until the next tariff shock arrives. Energy independence, solar integration, battery storage and intelligent energy management are rapidly becoming operational necessities, not optional upgrades.
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Sources
Eskom, NERSA, MyBroadband, IOL Business Report, Daily Investor, SABC News, TBG SA