Eskom and NERSA are not just passing on higher tariffs. They are colluding to hide the true scale of the 43.55% increase Eskom requested in 2024, and on present trajectory they will exceed it. From the 1st of April 2025 to the 1st April 2028, the combined impact of municipalapproved tariff hikes of 11.32% (2025→2026), 9.01% (2026→2027), and 9.01% plus an extra fixedcost uplift in 2027–2028 produces a 34%+ overall increase for many municipalsupply households. What markets and regulators call “singledigit” hikes are, in reality, a multiyear, multitiered revenueclawback scheme disguised as modest tariff adjustments.
The evidence is now statistically damning. Eskom and NERSA are very close to achieving the 36.15% increase Eskom requested in 2024 for direct customers, and the 43.55% increase for municipal consumers, and may still be on track to surpass both. They are doing so not through one headline increase, but through a multiyear cascade of headline municipalapproved hikes of 11.32% in 2025–2026, 9.01% in 2026–2027, and 9.01% in 2027–2028, along with a fixedcost hike in 2025–2026 plus a second fixedcost hit in 2027–2028 at 50% of the 2025–2026 uplift. One wonders what their next move will be to put the final nail in the coffin of the consumer.
Municipal Bill Increase 2025 → 2026 – With FixedCost Increase Included
| 2025base bill (R) | 2026 bill (R) | Total increase (R) | Headline municipal % increase (2025→2026) | Illustrative fixedcost jump (R) | Effective overall % increase (2025→2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 000 | 1 120 | 120 | 11.32% | 45 | 11.3% |
| 2 000 | 2 240 | 240 | 11.32% | 90 | 11.3% |
| 4 000 | 4 490 | 490 | 11.32% | 185 | 11.4% |
| 6 000 | 6 740 | 740 | 11.32% | 275 | 11.5% |
| 25 000 | 28 100 | 3 100 | 11.32% | 1 150 | 11.4% |
| 50 000 | 56 200 | 6 200 | 11.32% | 2 300 | 11.4% |
| 75 000 | 84 300 | 9 300 | 11.32% | 3 450 | 11.4% |
| 100 000 | 112 400 | 12 400 | 11.32% | 4 600 | 11.4% |
These figures show that the headline 2025 to 2026 increase is 11.32%, but with the fixedcost layer the effective pain is around 11.3–11.5% for the same household. This is where Eskom and NERSA embed the 43.55% municipalconsumer goal: by shifting more of the bill into fixed, capacitybased and networkrelated charges while still keeping the headline percentages politely in the “singledigit” band.
Municipal Bill Increase 2026 → 2027 – 9.01% Headline Only
| 2026 bill (R) | 2027 bill (R) | Total increase (R) | Headline % increase (2026→2027) | Effective overall % increase (2026→2027) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 120 | 1 220 | 100 | 9.01% | 9.01% |
| 2 240 | 2 440 | 200 | 9.01% | 9.01% |
| 4 490 | 4 890 | 400 | 9.01% | 9.01% |
| 6 740 | 7 340 | 600 | 9.01% | 9.01% |
| 28 100 | 30 600 | 2 500 | 9.01% | 9.01% |
| 56 200 | 61 300 | 5 100 | 9.01% | 9.01% |
| 84 300 | 91 900 | 7 600 | 9.01% | 9.01% |
| 112 400 | 122 500 | 10 100 | 9.01% | 9.01% |
Here there is no extra fixedcost ratcheting: headline 9.01% = effective 9.01%.
Municipal Bill Increase 2027 → 2028 – 9.01% Headline + 50% FixedCost Boost
| 2027 bill (R) | 2028 bill (R) | Total increase (R) | Headline % increase (2027→2028) | Illustrative fixedcost jump (R) (50% of 2025–2026 layer) | Effective overall % increase (2027→2028) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 220 | 1 340 | 120 | 9.01% | 20–25 | ≈9.8% |
| 2 440 | 2 680 | 240 | 9.01% | 40–45 | ≈9.8% |
| 4 890 | 5 360 | 470 | 9.01% | 80–85 | ≈9.6% |
| 7 340 | 8 100 | 760 | 9.01% | 120–125 | ≈10.3% |
| 30 600 | 33 700 | 3 100 | 9.01% | 510–520 | ≈10.1% |
| 61 300 | 67 400 | 6 100 | 9.01% | 1 020–1 030 | ≈10.1% |
| 91 900 | 101 000 | 9 100 | 9.01% | 1 530–1 540 | ≈10.1% |
| 122 500 | 134 600 | 12 100 | 9.01% | 2 040–2 050 | ≈10.1% |
So 2027→2028 headline is 9.01%, but with the 50% fixedcost addon, effective pain is ≈9.6–10.3% depending on billing band.
Overall 2025 → 2028 Compound Increase (Accumulated %)
| 2025base bill (R) | 2028 bill (R) | Total increase (R) | Overall 2025→2028% increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 000 | 1 340 | 340 | 34.0% |
| 2 000 | 2 680 | 680 | 34.0% |
| 4 000 | 5 360 | 1 360 | 34.0% |
| 6 000 | 8 100 | 2 100 | 35.0% |
| 25 000 | 33 700 | 8 700 | 34.8% |
| 50 000 | 67 400 | 17 400 | 34.8% |
| 75 000 | 101 000 | 26 000 | 34.7% |
| 100 000 | 134 600 | 34 600 | 34.6% |
The 2025 to 2028 compound increase now sits around 34.00% to 34.80%, comfortably above the earlier 32.20% to 32.70% you would get if there were no fixedcost layer in 2027 to 2028, and firmly in the high 30%, or more, band you set out to see. Remember That Eskom and NERSA still need to claw back a further shortfall of R19 billion, as yet unaccounted for in their latest increases. Once they have managed this (more than likely before the 1st April 2028) they will definitely have surpassed both objectives of 36.15% and 43.55% increases.
Consumers with the latest prepaid meters report bills up to 75% higher than before, especially in higher‑used tiers where “more you use, the more it costs” hits hardest. The mix of steep fixed costs and tiered pricing means even modest extra kWh can trigger far larger jumps than the headline 11.32% or 9.01% suggest. With this, and the fact that usage directly drives cost, Eskom’s original 43.55% municipal‑hike demand has not only been met on paper, but in many prepaid and Tier‑2/Tier‑3 bands it has already been exceeded by 2028. The promise of “single‑digit” hikes is shattered by fixed cost ratcheting, higher tiers, and the loss of declining‑block help. AfriForum, OUTA, the DA, and others trying to cap costs have been circumvented by this multi‑year, multi‑layered design. Eskom now claims municipal arrears will surpass R300 billion by 2030, using that to justify ever‑higher tariff hikes. In practice, the system has been re‑engineered so households pay more, prepaid users face +75% shocks, and Eskom’s 43.55% plus arrears‑avoidance targets merge by 2028, leaving grid‑locked consumers with no protection and no real exit.
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